LIBRA Fallout Hits Crypto Markets, SOL as FTX Repayments Set to Start

By Francisco Rodrigues (All instances ET until indicated in any other case)

While bitcoin (BTC) is little modified over the previous 24 hours, down simply 0.7%, the broader market is in a bearish temper following the Libra token debacle, which has led to accusations of fraud and requires the impeachment of Argentina’s President Javier Milei.

The CoinDesk 20 Index is down round 2.3% over the previous day, and the near- to medium-term market motion most likely hinges on how the U.S.-Russia negotiations in Riyadh go. The talks are focusing not solely on ending the battle in Ukraine, but additionally on “normalization” of ties between the nations.

An further layer of uncertainty comes from FTX Digital Markets, the Bahamas-based subsidiary of FTX, which begins repaying collectors right now. In whole, FTX’s compensation program can be round $16 billion.

The liquidity injection will come within the type of stablecoins. First up are collectors with claims below $50,000, who will obtain roughly 119% of their adjudicated declare worth, with 9% annual curiosity accrued since November 2022.

The impact the repayments can have is unclear. While some analysts say the quantity being repaid now’s “too small to move the needle,” others counsel that FTX’s historic curiosity within the Solana ecosystem means a few of these funds will circulate towards it.

Investors have lately turned their consideration to ether. U.S.-listed spot ETFs providing publicity to the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization are seeing a cumulative internet influx of $393 million this month. That compares with a internet outflow of $376 million for spot bitcoin ETFs.

These inflows come forward of Ethereum’s Pectra improve coming into its testing section on the Holesky testnet. Pectra ought to convey quite a few enhancements to scalability and safety and can let customers pay for fuel charges with tokens aside from ether.

Elsewhere, particular person traders are bearish amid trade-war threats, diminished interest-rate lower expectations, and constant inflationary surprises. A survey from the American Association of Individual Investors discovered that bearishness amongst traders is at a two-year excessive, the Wall Street Journal reviews.

This pessimism, nonetheless, is usually a contrarian indicator. Institutional traders’ danger urge for food has additionally dropped this month over the potential results of a possible commerce conflict amid the decreasing odds of a Fed price lower. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
• Macro
  • Feb. 18, 10:20 a.m.: San Francisco Fed President and CEO Mary C. Daly delivers a speech in Phoenix. Livestream hyperlink.
  • Feb. 18, 1:00 p.m.: The Fed’s Michael S. Barr took, vice chair for supervision, offers a speech titled “Artificial Intelligence in the Economy and Financial Stability” in New York. Livestream hyperlink.
  • Feb. 19, 2:00 p.m.: The Fed releases minutes of the Jan. 28-29 FOMC Meeting.
• Earnings
  • Feb. 18: CoinShares International (CS), pre-market
  • Feb. 18: Semler Scientific (SMLR), post-market
  • Feb. 20: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.88
  • Feb. 24: Riot Platforms (RIOT), post-market, $-0.18
  • Feb. 25: ​​Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market, $-0.53
  • Feb. 25: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market, $-0.09
  • Feb. 26: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, $-0.13

Token Events

• Governance
• Unlocks
  • Feb. 21: Fast Token (FTN) to unlock 4.66% of circulating provide price $78.6 million.
  • Feb. 28: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.92% of circulating provide price $34.23 million.
• Token Launches
  • Feb. 18: Ethena (ENA) to be listed on Arkham.
  • Feb. 18: Ronin (RON) to be listed on KuCoin

Conferences:

CoinDesk’s Consensus to happen in Hong Kong on Feb. 18-20 and in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Token Talk

By Francisco Rodrigues

• Donald Trump supporters are set to obtain round $50 price of the official TRUMP tokens in the event that they purchased merchandise from the web sites related to the U.S. president.
• The token was unveiled simply days earlier than Trump took workplace and have misplaced greater than 70% of their worth since then.
• Solana-based decentralized alternate Jupiter has began accumulating USDC utilizing 50% of the collected protocol charges to purchase again JUP tokens. The buybacks haven’t but began.
• JUP’s worth is down greater than 12% during the last 24 hours over the protocol’s obvious involvement within the LIBRA cryptocurrency debacle.

Derivatives Positioning

• SOL’s worth might proceed to fall, seeing that perpetual futures open curiosity has risen by 5% prior to now 24 hours, accompanied by a damaging cumulative quantity delta (CVD). This mixture signifies internet promoting strain available in the market.
• The CVD for many main tokens is damaging, indicating a bearish sentiment.
• BTC and ETH front-dated or short-term places proceed to be pricier than calls on Deribit. The sentiment is bullish after February expiry.
• Block flows featured an April expiry bitcoin bull put unfold, involving strikes $85K and $100K and outright longs in places at $94K and $90K strikes. Ether bull name spreads crossed the tape as nicely.

Market Movements:

• BTC is down 0.69% from 4 p.m. ET Monday to $95,802.76 (24hrs: -0.57%)
• ETH is down 2.88% at $2,698.31 (24hrs: -1.89%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 2.23% to 3,161.95 (24hrs: -3.03%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 27 bps to 3.18%
• BTC funding price is at 0.0078% (8.5541% annualized) on Binance
• DXY is up 0.36% at 106.94
• Gold is up 0.97% at $2,922.9/oz
• Silver is up 0.70% to $32.99/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed 0.25% at 39,270.4
• Hang Seng closed +1.59% at 22,976.81
• FTSE is up 0.18% at 8,783.43
• Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,520.7
• DJIA closed Friday -0.37% at 44,546.08
• S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,114.63
• Nasdaq closed +0.41% at 20,026.77
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.84% at 25,483.2
• S&P 40 Latin America closed +2.12% at 2,490.30
• U.S. 10-year Treasury price was up 3 bps at 4.51%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% to 6,151.5
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.21% at 22,282
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.15% to 44,676

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 61.17 (0.85%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02813 (-1.71%)
• Hashrate (seven-day shifting common): 790 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $53.47
• Total Fees: 6.93 BTC / $663,706
• CME Futures Open Interest: 174,200 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 32.8 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 9.31%

Technical Analysis

• The chart exhibits the market dominance of Tether’s USDT, the biggest dollar-pegged stablecoin.
• Its dominance price appears to have bounced off the March 2024 low, teasing a bullish double backside sample.
• In different phrases, USDT may grow to be extra dominant, which often occurs throughout market-wide worth corrections.

Crypto Equities

• MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $337.73 (+3.94%), down 0.6% at $335.76 in pre-market.
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $274.31 (-7.98%)
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.65 (-2.54%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.90 (-0.06%)
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.27 (+0.33%)
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $12.51 (-0.24%)
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.50 (-1.59%)
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $23.40 (+0.52%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $49.67 (+0.44%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $50.00 (unchanged)

ETF Flows

The information beneath is as of Feb. 14. U.S. markets have been closed on Feb. 17.

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily internet circulate: $70.6 million
• Cumulative internet flows: $40.12 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.180 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily internet circulate: $11.7 million
• Cumulative internet flows: $3.15 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.791 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• While bitcoin stays listless beneath $100,000, Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has jumped shut to document highs.
• If BTC’s historic constructive correlation with the tech inventory is any information, BTC may quickly choose up a powerful bid.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether