Now Reading: Israel pounds Iran: Ayatollah on the brink – will Khamenei’s regime implode?
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Israel pounds Iran: Ayatollah on the brink – will Khamenei’s regime implode?
Iran’s regime is underneath siege – externally by Israeli airstrikes, internally by mistrust and disillusion. The query gripping overseas capitals and Iranian streets alike: is Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s Islamic Republic on the brink of implosion?Israel’s army marketing campaign has worn out a lot of Iran’s prime brass, uncovered its intelligence vulnerabilities, and thrown its nuclear program into disarray. For Khamenei, now 86, it’s a historic disaster – not simply of energy, however of survival.Why it issues
- Iran is not only a state. It’s a theocratic fortress constructed to endure exterior assault. Yet right now, it faces one thing deeper: elite betrayal, widespread rage, and the erosion of its personal pillars – the Revolutionary Guards, inside unity, and divine legitimacy.
- In latest days, the Israeli marketing campaign, dubbed “Rising Lion,” has achieved what few believed doable. Multiple Iranian generals, together with Hossein Salami, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, and spymaster Mohammad Kazemi-all a part of Khamenei’s closest army mind belief-have been eradicated in precision strikes. These killings have left “major holes in his inner circle and raised the risk of strategic miscalculations.”
- On June 16, Israel claimed “full air supremacy over Tehran.” Images of empty highways, shuttered outlets, and civilians fleeing the capital flooded social media. Barbeque emojis mock lifeless generals. Others flow into maps of Tehran neighborhoods prepped for evacuation. Still, the regime insists: enterprise as traditional.
- “Iran’s default is to defy aggressors, not to capitulate,” the Economist noticed. That intuition could once more assist it survive – or provoke its collapse.
What’s taking place
- Khamenei’s internal circle has been decimated: Israeli airstrikes have killed most of his senior army advisers, together with Hossein Salami (IRGC commander), Amir Ali Hajizadeh (aerospace chief), and Mohammad Kazemi (spymaster).
- “Extremely dangerous,” stated one supply near Khamenei’s resolution-making course of. Strategic miscalculations are actually much more seemingly.
- Missile strikes and sabotage are ongoing: Iran has launched greater than 400 missiles at Israel – most intercepted. Israeli strikes have hit the Natanz and Arak nuclear services and reportedly broken underground enrichment halls. The Fordow facility, dug deep right into a mountain, stays a flashpoint.
- Popular rage simmers, however worry dominates: Social media cheers lifeless generals. Young Iranians name them “enemies of the people.” But protest actions are leaderless, fractured, and burned by previous crackdowns. As the Economist places it: “The regime might be weak, but its people are weaker.”
- Khamenei’s son is stepping in: Mojtaba Khamenei, a mid-stage cleric with deep IRGC ties, is quietly consolidating energy. He’s seen as a possible successor, endorsed even by some reformists like Faezeh Hashemi Rafsanjani. That’s much less an indication of help than resignation: Mojtaba is the regime’s greatest guess for continuity – or its softest touchdown.
Signs of a crumbling regime
- Loyalty is cracking: Israel’s skill to assassinate commanders of their houses suggests excessive-stage leaks. Cronyism, paranoia, and distrust now infect resolution-making.
- Military doctrine is failing: “A paper cat,” one Tehran stockbroker stated of Iran’s vaunted missile forces. No sirens warn civilians. No credible protection is in place.
- Street sentiment is shifting: After the assassination of Hajizadeh – liable for downing a Ukrainian airliner in 2020 – on-line celebrations have been widespread. Some Iranians draped themselves in Israeli flags.
- But beneath the mockery lies worry. Tehran residents queue for gas. Others flee to the countryside. The regime’s response? Rationing petrol and slicing social media entry.
A regime conditioned to outliveIf historical past is any information, army humiliation hardly ever spells the finish for Iran’s rulers. The Iran-Iraq struggle (1980–1988), launched when Saddam Hussein noticed the revolutionary regime as susceptible, as a substitute fortified the clerical state and birthed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as an influence unto itself.Likewise, Israel’s marketing campaign, whereas dazzling in its intelligence penetration and tactical success, could but provoke a counterforce: nationalism.“Iran’s default is to defy aggressors, not to capitulate,” the Economist famous. Khamenei’s response to the June 13 killing of Hajizadeh was not regret however wrath. “We will show them no mercy,” he declared. Though aged and remoted, he stays “extremely stubborn but also extremely cautious,” stated Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute.Within 18 hours of the first strikes, a brand new layer of IRGC commanders had fired off a whole lot of retaliatory missiles-principally intercepted, however symbolically very important. The regime had not surrendered. It had reloaded.Between the strains
- Khamenei has confronted protest waves earlier than – 1999, 2009, 2022 – and crushed them with power. But this time is totally different. The army isn’t simply challenged. It’s hollowed out.
- Worse, Khamenei is remoted. Trusted confidants are lifeless. His son is seen as opportunistic. And his allies in the “Axis of Resistance” – from Syria to Hezbollah – are both overthrown or weakened.
- “We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now,” Trump wrote, referring to Khamenei – whereas demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender.”
- Despite his public rage, Khamenei’s calculus hasn’t modified: regime survival in any respect prices. “He is extremely stubborn but also extremely cautious,” Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute advised Reuters. That’s how he’s lasted since 1989.
I’ll do it, I’ll not do it. I imply, no one is aware of what I’m going to do. I can let you know this, that Iran’s acquired plenty of bother, and so they wish to negotiate. The subsequent week goes to be very massive.
US President Donald Trump
Scenarios forward
- Collapse from inside: Continued strikes, elite defections, and mounting protests may implode the regime. Unlikely – however now not unthinkable.
- Militarized succession: If Khamenei dies or steps down, Mojtaba could inherit energy – with the IRGC as kingmaker. Think Saudi-style modernization with Shia theocracy intact.
- Rally-round-the-flag impact: Prolonged struggle may set off patriotism, particularly if civilians undergo closely. Israel’s marketing campaign may backfire, uniting Iranians behind a battered regime.
- Forever struggle: As Foreign Policy famous, “The war may never formally end.” Instead, Iran could strike in waves, rebuild clandestinely, and bleed its enemies by means of proxies.
Israel’s gamble: Collapse or conflagration?Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made no secret of his technique. This is not only about destroying Fordow or Natanz. As Peter Beaumont of Tthe Guardian famous, “Netanyahu speaks of regime change in Iran; what he means is regime destruction.”Israel has disabled Iran’s air defenses, obliterated key army websites, and worn out a lot of its nuclear command construction. But whether or not this paves the means for a steady transition-or a violent, area-spanning catastrophe-stays unclear.Even Netanyahu’s allies admit the limits of what might be achieved by means of power. “The protest movement lacks a leader or a common agenda,” stated one Israeli safety official. “You can create a vacuum. You can’t control what fills it.”And Iran just isn’t with out choices. As Foreign Policy identified, “Tehran could seek to engage in a war of attrition, exhausting its adversaries’ will or capacity to fight.” It can nonetheless name on proxies, pursue clandestine nuclear improvement, and even escalate cyberattacks and terror strikes overseas.(With inputs from businesses)
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