Bitcoin Reserve in 100 Days of Trump’s Presidency? Market Is Still Skeptical

A weekend Truth Social submit from President Donald Trump set in movement the primary steps in making a strategic U.S. bitcoin (BTC) reserve, however Polymarket merchants are skeptical that it’ll occur throughout the first 100 days.

As of press time, Polymarket bettors are giving a 23% probability {that a} strategic BTC reserve might be created throughout the first 100 days of the Trump presidency – or by April thirtieth, 2025.

Rules of the contract say that the U.S. authorities might want to particularly maintain bitcoin – and never from confiscation – by 11:59 PM ET on April 29 for this to resolve to sure. Announcements of the creation of a reserve don’t depend.

Chances of a reserve coming true spiked from 11% to 23% in the moments after Trump’s announcement. Another contract that asks if a reserve might be created by the tip of 2025 presently has a 65% probability of resolving to sure.

Initially, Trump’s social media submit saying the creation of the reserve solely named XRP and SOL as parts of the reserve—which triggered their worth to spike—earlier than clarifying that BTC and ETH would even be included in the reserve.

One of probably the most worthwhile merchants of the 100-day crypto reserve contract is Theo5, which seems to be affiliated with a French dealer who created a collection of accounts, together with Theo4, to directionally guess on Trump’s victory in the November 2024 election.

Theo5 presently has posted a $40,000 revenue on his no place.

Meanwhile, a dealer referred to as Polywog misplaced $73,000 on their sure place and additionally misplaced over $560,000 by incorrectly betting on the result of the 2025 election.