BTC Price Retreats From $108K, But Bulls Aren’t Done

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By Omkar Godbole (All instances ET until indicated in any other case)

Slowly, then out of the blue. That sums up the adoption of bitcoin

and the broader cryptocurrency market by establishments.

It began with Strategy, then referred to as MicroStrategy, adopting BTC as a steadiness sheet asset in 2020. Now the pinnacle of the U.S. authorities company overseeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac needs the mortgage giants to think about homebuyers’ cryptocurrency holdings of their standards for getting mortgages from banks.

“After significant studying, and in keeping with President Trump’s vision to make the United States the crypto capital of the world, today I ordered the Great Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to prepare their businesses to count cryptocurrency as an asset for a mortgage. SO ORDERED,” Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, mentioned on X.

Getting entrenched within the housing market of the world’s largest financial system can solely add to the continued bull momentum in BTC and different cryptocurrencies. And, in a transfer that would markedly enhance massive banks’ capacity to create credit score, the Federal Reserve superior a long-awaited plan to overtake financial institution capital necessities. That’s a constructive improvement for danger property.

It’s no shock that BTC, which is most delicate to fiat liquidity circumstances, has prolonged positive factors prior to now 24 hours, topping $108,000 at one level. The broader market capitalization is quick approaching a volatility threshold, based on FxPro’s analyst Alex Kuptsikevich.

“The crypto market cap increased by another 1% to $3.31 trillion, reaching the threshold of increased volatility. Just above that, in the $3.40–3.55 trillion range, is a turning point, which has activated sellers and prevented the market from consolidating higher,” Kuptsikevich mentioned in an e-mail, noting an increase within the Fear and Greed Index to 74, only one level beneath the acute greed zone.

In different information, spot BTC ETFs recorded a internet influx of $548 million, marking 12 consecutive days of constructive flows.

Metaplanet bought one other 1,234 BTC, a day after asserting a $515 million elevate to fund the treasury technique. Meanwhile, Nasdaq-listed Bit Digital introduced a strategic shift to develop into a pure-play ether

staking and treasury firm.

The Hong Kong Government issued a coverage assertion on the event of digital property, specializing in streamlining regulatory points, increasing the suite of tokenized merchandise, advancing use instances and cross-sectoral collaboration.

In conventional markets, futures tied to the Nasdaq index rose to report highs, pointing to continued risk-on sentiment whereas the greenback index continued to lose floor. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypt
    • June 30: CME Group will introduce spot-quoted futures, pending regulatory approval, permitting buying and selling in bitcoin, ether and main U.S. fairness indices with contracts holdable for as much as 5 years.
  • Macro
    • June 26, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases May manufactured sturdy items orders knowledge.
      • Durable Goods Orders MoM Est. 8.5% vs. Prev. -6.3%
      • Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM Prev. -7.5%
      • Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM Est. 0% vs. Prev. 0.2%
    • June 26, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases (closing) Q1 GDP knowledge.
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Est. -0.2% vs. Prev. 2.4%
      • GDP Price Index QoQ Final Est. 3.7% vs. Prev. 2.3%
      • GDP Sales QoQ Final Est. -2.9% vs. Prev. 3.3%
    • June 26, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance coverage knowledge for the week ended June 21.
      • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 245K vs. Prev. 245K
      • Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1950K vs. Prev. 1945K
    • June 26, 3 p.m.: The Bank of Mexico pronounces its rate of interest determination.
      • Overnight Interbank Target Rate Est. 8% Prev. 8.5%
    • June 27, 9:15 a.m.: Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook will ship a speech at a Fed Listens occasion hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Livestream hyperlink.
    • June 27, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases May unemployment price knowledge.
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 6.4% vs. Prev. 6.6%
    • June 27, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases May unemployment price knowledge.
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.5%
    • June 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases May client earnings and expenditure knowledge.
      • Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.1%
      • Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.5%
      • PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.1%
      • PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 2.1%
      • Personal Income MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.8%
      • Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.2%
    • June 27, 10 a.m.: The University of Michigan releases (closing) June U.S. client sentiment knowledge.
      • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Est. 60.5 vs. Prev. 52.2
  • Earnings (Estimates primarily based on FactSet knowledge)

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Lido DAO is voting on updating its Block Proposer Rewards Policy to SNOP v3. The proposal units new requirements for node operators, together with use of vetted APMs and clearer duties to reinforce decentralization, honest rewards, and operational safety. Voting ends June 30.
    • Arbitrum DAO is voting on decreasing the constitutional quorum threshold from 5% to 4.5% of votable tokens. This goals to match decreased voter participation and assist well-supported proposals move extra simply, with out affecting non-constitutional proposals, which stay at a 3% quorum. Voting ends July 4.
    • The Polkadot group is voting on launching a non-custodial Polkadot branded fee card to “to bridge the gap between digital assets in the Polkadot ecosystem and everyday spending.” Voting ends July 9.
  • Unlocks
    • June 30: Optimism to unlock 1.79% of its circulating provide value $16.82 million.
    • July 1: Sui to unlock 1.3% of its circulating provide value $117.91 million.
    • July 2: Ethena {{ENA}} to unlock 0.67% of its circulating provide value $10.52 million.
    • July 11: Immutable to unlock 1.31% of its circulating provide value $10.11 million.
    • July 12: Aptos to unlock 1.76% of its circulating provide value $54.17 million.
    • July 15: Starknet to unlock 3.79% of its circulating provide value $14.07 million.
  • Token Launches
    • June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render , Ribbon Finance and Synapse .
    • June 26: Sahara AI (SAHARA) to be listed on OKX, Bitget, MEXC, CoinW, and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation convention (previously often known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique occasion held in Washington on Sept. 10 that enables normal counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to fulfill with public officers liable for crypto laws and regulatory oversight. Space is restricted. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration via July 17.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • SEI is up 50% in per week, main all prime 100 tokens, as analysts name a “clean, multi-factor rally” with good cash on the wheel.
  • Wyoming named SEI as a settlement layer for its state-backed greenback pilot (WYST), giving the chain uncommon institutional cred and lifting visibility.
  • Catalysts stacked up quick: airdrop v2 snapshot, 9% validator APY bump and 0 significant token unlocks within the close to time period.
  • CEX inflows topped $3M, whereas perp open curiosity rose simply 9% and funding stayed flat — a traditional signal of natural, spot-led shopping for.
  • Sei’s TVL crossed $540M, with DEX quantity hitting a report $60M on Wednesday, per DeFiLlama — indicating rising DeFi traction.
  • Analysts warn that funding in extra of 0.05% or open curiosity outpacing spot would sign leverage creep and doable overextension.
  • For now, momentum is clear, macro is supportive, and July might convey extra upside if danger urge for food holds.

Derivatives Positioning

  • BTC’s slight pullback from Wednesday’s excessive of over $108,250 is accompanied by an uptick in perpetual futures open curiosity on main exchanges.
  • It’s doable some market individuals are taking hedges towards a value drop.
  • BCH, PEPE and XMR have seen essentially the most improve in open curiosity prior to now 24 hours.
  • On the CME, BTC futures open curiosity jumped to a four-week excessive of 159.85K BTC. Still, the premise stays flat beneath 10%, weakening the bullish positioning narrative.
  • On Deribit, danger reversals have normalized to point out slight name bias in BTC choices. ETH near-term tenors nonetheless present a slight put premium.
  • Flows have been blended on OTC liquidity community Paradigm, that includes danger reversals and a few demand for name choices.

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 0.37% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $107,446.08 (24hrs: +0.17%)
  • ETH is up 1.29% at $2,473.17 (24hrs: +1.41%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 0.34% at 2,997.24 (24hrs: -0.03%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 10 bps at 3.04%
  • BTC funding price is at -0.0004% (-0.4303% annualized) on Binance
CoinDesk 20 members’ performance
  • DXY is down 0.56% at 97.14
  • Gold futures are up 0.33% at $3,354.10
  • Silver futures are up 1.45% at $36.63
  • Nikkei 225 closed up 1.65% at 39,584.58
  • Hang Seng closed down 0.61% at 24,325.40
  • FTSE is up 0.14% at 8,731.26
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.13% at 5,258.69
  • DJIA closed on Wednesday down 0.25% at 42,982.43
  • S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,092.16
  • Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.31% at 19,973.55
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.57% at 26,566.32
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.74% at 2,611.91
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury price is down 2 bps at 4.28%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.27% at 6,163.50
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.41% at 22,552.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.20% at 43,392.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 65.65% (-0.11%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02297 (1.95%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day shifting common): 803 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $54.23
  • Total Fees: 4.81 BTC / $515,528
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 159,850 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 32.1 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 9.1%

Technical Analysis

BCH/BTC pair. (TradingView)

BCH/BTC pair. (TradingView)

  • The bullish case for the Binance-listed bitcoin-bitcoin money pair appears to be like robust because the 50-day easy shifting common (SMA) seems on monitor to cross above the 200-day SMA.
  • That would affirm a golden cross, a long-term bullish indicator.

Crypto Equities

Effective June 30, the worth for Galaxy will likely be for its Nasdaq itemizing denominated in U.S. {dollars} quite than the Canadian-dollar-denominated itemizing on the TSX.

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $388.67 (+3.09%), -0.38% at $387.20 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $355.37 (+3.06%), +0.44% at $356.95
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $198.62 (-10.79%), -1.17% at $196.29
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$26.61 (-1.7%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.98 (+0.67%), unchanged in pre-market
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $10 (-0.2%), +0.1% at $10.01
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $12.3 (+0.74%), +0.33% at $12.34
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.60 (+5.58%), -0.19% at $10.58
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $19.48 (+0.31%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $41.04 (-2.03%), -0.15% at $40.98
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $31.16 (-8.78%), unchanged in pre-market

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily internet move: $547.7 million
  • Cumulative internet flows: $48.12 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.23 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily internet move: $60.4 million
  • Cumulative internet flows: $4.14 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 4.06 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

The amount of USDtb borrowed on Aave. (Sentora)

The quantity of USDtb borrowed on Aave. (Sentora)

  • The chart reveals the quantity of USDtb borrowed on decentralized lending and borrowing big Aave. USDtb is an Ethena ecosystem stablecoin backed by Blackrock’s BUIDL.
  • The tally has risen sharply to report excessive, signaling a choose up in demand for yield-bearing stablecoins in DeFi.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

bitcoin dominance has been rising consistently for a year
today I ordered the Great Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to prepare their businesses to count cryptocurrency as an asset for a mortgage.
Bear market
DXY now at the lowest level since March 2022.
SEC COMMISSIONER HESTER PEIRCE SAYS IN-KIND CREATIONS AND REDEMPTIONS FOR $BTC ETFS ARE "ON THE HORIZON."



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