BTC’s September Low May Already Be In, History Suggests

Historical knowledge means that bitcoin BTC$114,965.58 has seemingly put in its September 2025 low, round $107,000 on the primary of the month.

Looking again to July 2024, a constant sample emerges the place bitcoin tends to type a backside for the month throughout the first 10 days of every month.

The notable exceptions had been February, June and August 2025, when the lows got here later within the month, however even then, the market skilled a correction inside these first 10 days earlier than resuming its broader pattern.

Speculatively, the rationale bitcoin typically places in its low throughout the first 10 days of the month could possibly be tied to institutional portfolio rebalancing or the timing of key macroeconomic occasions that are likely to cluster early within the month.

“It’s price noting that a number of futures and choices markets expire on the ultimate day of the month or the primary day of the following, this will result in quick time period volatility and a subsequent lull in buying and selling exercise as merchants both rollover trades or reposition solely,” stated Oliver Knight, deputy managing editor, knowledge and tokens, at CoinDesk.

Of course, previous efficiency shouldn’t be a assure of future outcomes, however as This autumn approaches it’s price noting that this quarter has traditionally been bitcoin’s strongest, delivering a median return of 85%. October specifically has been particularly favorable, with solely two shedding months since 2013.