How climate change affects India’s wheat production

In 2024-2025, authorities wheat procurement was recorded at 26.6 million tonnes. While this exceeded the 26.2 million tonnes procured in 2023-2024, it fell wanting the 34.15 million tonne goal for the yr.

In May 2022, India had prohibited wheat exports. This was shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, a significant wheat-producing nation, which disrupted worldwide availability of the meals grain and triggered a world value hike.

Heat and wheat

Climate variability itself is just not a brand new phenomenon, but it surely catches our consideration when the crop progress season overlaps with warmth wave circumstances, Sandeep Mahato of the M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF), Chennai, advised The Hindu.

A 2022 examine within the International Journal of Molecular Sciences famous that growing world warming is inflicting warmth stress that “triggers significant changes in the biological and developmental process of wheat, leading to a reduction in grain production and grain quality”.

According to the paper’s authors, warmth stress is understood to have an effect on the expansion and growth of wheat by altering “physio-bio-chemical processes such as photosynthesis, respiration, oxidative damage, activity of stress-induced hormones, proteins and anti-oxidative enzymes, water and nutrient relations, and yield-forming attributes (biomass, tiller count, grain number and size) upon exposure to temperatures above the optimum range”.

Stages of wheat progress

According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, phases of wheat progress are outlined based mostly on how totally different organs of the plant develop. This will be broadly grouped into 4 phases:

(i) Germination to emergence: This consists of the expansion of the seed till the seedling breaks by the soil floor and the primary leaf emerges.

(ii) Growth stage 1: Steps from emergence to double ridge. Shoots seem, and the plant progress shifts focus from producing primordial leaves to flowering buildings known as spikelets.

(iii) Growth stage 2: This stage lasts from double ridge to anthesis. This is the place the main focus of the plant shifts from vegetative to reproductive stage. This can be one of many phases the place the plant is relatively extra prone to warmth stress.

(iv) Growth stage 3: This stage consists of the grain-filling interval, from anthesis to maturity.

Optimal temperature required for various phases of rising wheat.
| Photo Credit:
DOI: 10.3390/ijms23052838

According to specialists, the true downside begins with the oceans. The Indian Ocean is warming at an accelerated price. A 2024 examine carried out by scientists on the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, famous that the Indian Ocean will doubtless be in a “near-permanent heat wave state” primarily because of world warming by the tip of the century.

The frequency of marine warmth waves is anticipated to extend tenfold, from the present common of 20 days per yr to 220–250 days per yr, the examine added.

A warming Indian Ocean will in flip alter India’s monsoon, on which a lot of the nation’s agriculture relies upon. For instance, the kharif or summer time crop season is beginning and ending late, which inevitably delays the start of the rabi season.

Wheat is a rabi crop. If its sowing begins late, the later phases of plant progress will coincide with early warmth waves in India. February 2025 was hotter than normal, and comparable developments have been predicted for March. This can be the height season for wheat harvest, and perfect temperature in later phases of the plant’s progress mustn’t cross 30º C.

“High temperatures cause early flowering and faster ripening, shortening the grain-filling period. This results in lighter grains with lower starch accumulation, reducing the total wheat output,” Prakash Jha, assistant professor of agricultural climatology on the Mississippi State University, advised The Hindu.

“Extreme heat causes wheat to develop higher protein content but lower starch, making the grain harder and affecting milling quality. Farmers may face lower market prices due to reduced grain weight and quality issues,” he added.

Low crop yield additionally tends to make farmers determined and lead to overuse of fertilisers, fungicides, and so on., Nikhil Goveas, lead climate advisor with the Environmental Defense Fund, advised The Hindu. “Higher but inefficient use of resources is another cascading effect of heat-stress challenges in crops.”

Adaptation and mitigation

Food safety is central to the difference and mitigation methods officers use to decrease the warmth stress on wheat crops.

“Wheat is … important for farmers because it can be consumed immediately, so part of the produce is always saved for household consumption,” Goveas mentioned.

Farmers depend on older types of the crop as a result of accessibility is a problem, with issues associated to the provision chain, prices, and so on. Climate-resilient varieties are vital, however they aren’t a silver bullet resolution to the problem, Goveas added: “The problem is a deeper challenge of the climate crisis on our food systems. The earth is getting warmer. We need to think about not just one crop but all crops: get timings right, have our information and weather systems updated with the knowledge of what to expect, and undertake mitigation efforts against the challenges.”

“The larger question here is to be able to guarantee food security,” Mahato of MSSRF Chennai mentioned. “We have to focus on addressing yield gaps. This ties in the issue of efficient management of resources like fertilisers, pest control, etc.”

According to Mahato, fast coverage help to farmers to take care of warmth stress results on wheat will be within the type of compensation, however there are extra long run options that have to be integrated into our agricultural practices.

“Changes in agricultural management strategies to support early sowing of crops in areas that are likely to see early heat waves, or introducing improved yield varieties with shorter growth duration are some policy changes that can alleviate heat stress on wheat,” he added. “There is no compromise that can be done on improving production and that should be the central goal to the adaptation question.”

“Policymakers must take a multi-pronged approach, combining scientific research, financial support, technological solutions, and farmer education to protect wheat crops from rising heat stress,” based on Jha. “This includes promoting heat-resistant wheat varieties, adjusting sowing dates, financial support and crop insurance, and weather monitoring and advisories.”