Telecom earnings preview: Jio may lead in revenue development; Airtel likely to top ARPU quantity, Vi steadies user base

Reliance Jio may have outpaced Bharti Airtel in each total revenue and per-user revenue development in the June quarter, aided by sturdy additions in its high-paying fastened wi-fi entry (FWA) residence broadband phase, analysts mentioned forward of the telecom sector’s first-quarter earnings.Market chief Jio is predicted to report a 1.8% sequential leap in common revenue per user (ARPU) to Rs 210, pushed by the addition of two million FWA customers—a part of a likely web addition of seven.2 million subscribers, in accordance to JM Financial. Airtel whereas likely to clock the next ARPU at Rs 249, may see a decrease sequential development charge of 1.6%, the brokerage added, in accordance to an ET report.Vodafone Idea (Vi), in the meantime, is projected to report an ARPU of Rs 167, up 1.6% from the earlier quarter, buoyed by subscriber upgrades, improved user combine, and one further day in the June quarter. Crucially, Vi can be anticipated to preserve its user base for the primary time in current reminiscence, aided by an increasing 4G footprint and wider rollout of companies.

Revenue outlook diverges on community and technique

Jio’s sturdy subscriber additions are set to translate right into a 2.7% quarter-on-quarter rise in revenue to Rs 31,200 crore, JM Financial estimated. However, its standalone web revenue may keep flat at Rs 6,640 crore, due to the full-quarter impression of upper depreciation and amortisation following 5G spectrum capitalisation and stuck asset additions in the March quarter.

Telecom monetary snapshot: Q1 FY26 estimates (Compared to Jan–Mar ’25)

Source: JM Financial, BofA Securities, as reported ET.Airtel’s wi-fi service revenues are forecast to develop 2.6% to Rs 27,305 crore, whereas its consolidated web revenue may leap 47% sequentially to Rs 7,690 crore, on the again of sturdy cellular broadband development. JM Financial expects Airtel to add 5.5 million cellular broadband customers in Q1—down from 6.6 million in This fall FY25—whereas its complete subscriber addition is pegged at 2.3 million, the report mentioned.According to BofA Securities, Airtel’s enterprise revenues may stay below strain due to its exit from low-margin commodity wholesale voice companies.For Vodafone Idea, JM Financial expects a modest 1.1% sequential rise in revenue to Rs 11,100 crore, with web loss narrowing barely to Rs 7,145 crore. Analysts say Vi’s stabilising user base—after years of decline—is a results of its bettering community and up to date 5G enlargement.“We consider this trend to sustain going ahead, given a better network now,” BofA famous in a report.

Tariff hike already priced in

The impression of the current tariff hikes by telcos has already performed out, and analysts now anticipate the subsequent spherical of value will increase solely by subsequent 12 months. “We expect telcos to raise tariffs by around 12% in 2026,” BofA Securities mentioned.Vi just lately launched section two of its 5G rollout throughout 23 cities, aiming to cowl all 17 of its precedence circles. However, the telco nonetheless lags almost 2.5 years behind Jio and Airtel in the 5G race, having misplaced important market share because the rollout started.