US consumer confidence rose marginally in March whilst gasoline costs surged as a result of Iran war, highlighting resilience in spending however rising issues round inflation and financial outlook, in line with AP.The Conference Board stated its consumer confidence index elevated to 91.8 in March from 91 in February, indicating a modest enchancment despite rising price pressures.While the headline quantity remained steady, underlying indicators pointed to rising nervousness amongst customers. The survey famous rising pessimism, notably round inflation expectations, as oil and gas costs climbed sharply amid the Middle East battle.Mentions of oil, gas and the war rose considerably in respondents’ suggestions, whereas 12-month inflation expectations jumped to ranges final seen in August 2025, when issues over tariffs had peaked.US gasoline costs crossed $4 per gallon for the primary time since 2022, with the nationwide common reaching $4.02, in line with AAA. Prices have risen by over $1 because the battle started.“This is the key concern as the war in Iran enters the second month – will the oil price shock turn into a demand destruction shock?” stated Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.She famous that consumer spending remained regular in March, based mostly on bank card information, however warned that pressures may intensify within the coming months “as the worst of the inflation shock hits consumers.”A key gauge of short-term expectations for earnings, enterprise circumstances and employment declined by 1.7 factors to 70.9 — the 14th straight month beneath 80, a degree usually related to recession dangers.In distinction, the index measuring present financial circumstances rose 4.6 factors to 123.3.Inflation stays elevated. Government information confirmed a key inflation gauge rose 2.8% in January, even earlier than the current surge in vitality costs. Core inflation, excluding meals and vitality, elevated to three.1%, the very best in practically two years.Elevated costs and the probability of additional inflation as a result of Iran war have decreased expectations of near-term charge cuts by the Federal Reserve.The Fed had minimize charges 3 times in 2025 to assist the labour market however has paused additional motion in current conferences amid persistent inflation above its 2% goal.Labour market alerts stay combined. While views on present employment circumstances improved barely, expectations for the following six months weakened.Data from the Labour Department confirmed US employers minimize 92,000 jobs in February, opposite to expectations of job positive aspects, whereas the unemployment charge rose to 4.4%.Another report confirmed job openings declined to six.9 million in February from 7.2 million in January.Economists describe the present labour market as “low hire, low fire”, with companies cautious on hiring amid uncertainty over tariffs and excessive rates of interest.Economic development additionally slowed to 1.4% within the remaining quarter of final yr, weighed down by a authorities shutdown and softer consumer spending.Survey information confirmed demand tendencies stay uneven. Plans to buy vehicles elevated in March, notably for used autos, whereas homebuying expectations declined amid a chronic housing slowdown.Expectations for inventory market positive aspects over the following yr additionally dropped sharply, reflecting rising uncertainty amongst customers.