United States and Iran issue competing claims over control of the Strait of Hormuz amid rising maritime attacks

NEW DELHI — The United States and Iran have staked competing claims of control over the Strait of Hormuz amid a sharp escalation in maritime attacks that has pushed Brent crude oil past $110 a barrel.

Dozens of ships were attacked in or near the strategic waterway in October, marking the highest frequency of strikes since the US-Israel war on Iran began on February 28. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported at least 12 ship attacks during the week ending October 16 alone, though the organisation noted it is struggling to track accurate numbers because most targeted vessels refuse to report incidents.

The disruption carries profound implications for global energy markets and regional stability. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of global oil and natural gas flows, and ongoing hostilities threaten vital supply lines despite US efforts to sustain energy transits through regional coordination.

The US military has presented an optimistic assessment of maritime security. In a video message, US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Brad Cooper maintained that the waterway remains under the control of Washington and its regional partners rather than Tehran. Cooper asserted that 400 ships and 100 million barrels of oil traversed the strait over the preceding week, dismissing the surge in attacks as evidence of desperation by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

CENTCOM also stated that its naval blockade has cost Iran $25bn in oil export revenue and that authorities recently seized $350m in Iranian cryptocurrency financing. Official Western tracking figures recorded 125 outbound and 129 inbound transits over the seven-day period, primarily consisting of dry bulk cargo and tanker products.

Tehran has countered these assertions, accusing Washington of exaggerating passage figures to fabricate success. The IRGC reported that the waterway remains unsafe for vessels failing to coordinate with Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority, a body established during the war. Iranian authorities reported that a supertanker carrying over two million barrels of crude oil caught fire after striking a naval mine on an unauthorised route. State-run Press TV broadcast footage of the burning vessel.

Contradicting the Iranian account, CENTCOM stated that US forces have cleared the strait of naval mines and that vessels are instead being struck by projectiles. The US military cited the Thursday incident involving the civilian container ship M/V GFS Pride, which sank while being towed ashore after being hit by an IRGC projectile rather than a mine.

The maritime conflict extends beyond mines and projectiles. On Saturday, the master of a tanker reported being struck by a rocket-propelled grenade fired from a small boat 78 nautical miles northeast of Jubail in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, damaging the vessel’s aft port quarter. Compounding regional pressures, Iran-aligned Houthis have simultaneously attacked Saudi energy infrastructure and captured the Bab al-Mandeb strait.

Oil flows through Hormuz stood at 11.6 million barrels per day over the week leading to October 13, representing roughly 68 percent of the pre-war baseline of 17.1 million bpd, according to Kpler data. On Friday, Brent crude touched $110 a barrel for the first time since May.

While regional mediators including Pakistan and Qatar continue relaying messages between Washington and Tehran, analysts anticipate no immediate diplomatic breakthrough. US media reports indicate President Donald Trump has ordered the military to prepare for larger operations following the November 3 midterm elections, potentially involving the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb.

In response, acting Iranian Defence Minister Majid Ibn Reza stated on Saturday that the trajectory of the conflict will be dictated by Iranian missiles rather than American ordnance. State media quoted him as warning that US military actions would ultimately detonate within their global reputation, economy, and electoral calculations.