Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood prepares final decision on UK immigration rule changes

LONDON — Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is scheduled to deliver her final decision on sweeping changes to UK immigration rules in a statement to MPs in the House of Commons on Monday.

The upcoming announcement follows a consultation process that drew more than 200,000 responses. Under initial proposals put forward by Mahmood, the wait time for permanent settlement—known as Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR)—would be extended from five years to 10 years, with lower-paid migrants facing a 15-year wait. Mahmood argued that the reforms are necessary to avoid creating a “drain on our public finances.”

The proposals were originally launched in response to record post-Brexit net migration figures. According to Home Office data, net migration added 2.6 million people to the UK population between 2021 and 2024. In her consultation foreword, Mahmood noted that an effort to fill between 6,000 and 40,000 jobs resulted in the arrival of 616,000 individuals between 2022 and 2024, with more than half arriving as dependants. The Home Office has forecast that roughly 1.6 million people could be eligible to settle between 2026 and 2030.

Ahead of Monday’s announcement, the proposals have sparked intense political debate across party lines and within the government. Housing Secretary Angela Rayner stated that applying the policy changes to migrant workers already living in the UK would “change the goalposts.” Several Labour MPs also raised concerns about adopting a retrospective approach toward current residents, describing the move as “un-British.”

Despite internal divisions, Prime Minister Andy Burnham defended the overarching principle, stating that settlement is a “right to be earned, not just granted automatically.” Meanwhile, the BBC reported that the proposals are likely to be revised for most individuals currently employed in the social care sector.

Home Office calculations previously suggested that 196,000 care workers and their adult dependants could settle between 2026 and 2030, carrying an estimated lifetime cost of £9.5 billion to taxpayers. Former Home Office Minister Mike Tapp expressed hope that health and social care workers would be exempted from the retrospective extension. Earlier in June, Mahmood had asked former Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to sack Tapp after he penned an unauthorised article advocating for the exemption of foreign care workers.

The economic impact of the rules has divided external analysts and political figures. The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) think tank stated that skilled workers and dependants due to settle under existing rules are expected to make a net lifetime contribution of approximately £115 billion through taxes.

Conversely, Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp criticized the potential inclusion of lower-wage care workers, stating that letting them stay permanently would cost taxpayers £10 billion and serve as an “affront.” The Conservative Party accused Mahmood of having “capitulated control of immigration policy” to Rayner.

Reform UK home affairs spokesman Zia Yusuf alleged that Mahmood had been “overruled” by Burnham, labelling the situation a disaster and adding that Reform would abolish ILR entirely. Dr Ben Brindle commented that the policy changes likely will not exert a major influence on individuals’ decisions to migrate to the UK.