India Retail Inflation Exceeds Target Ceiling at 6.09% in October

NEW DELHI — India’s retail inflation quickened to 6.09% in October, breaching the Reserve Bank of India’s target tolerance range of 2% to 6%.

The acceleration marks the 12th consecutive month of rising consumer prices across the country, driven largely by climbing food and fuel expenses. Nearly half of the economists surveyed by Reuters had expected inflation to reach or exceed the 6% threshold.

Food inflation accelerated to 8.94% in October, up from 7.74% in September. Food prices account for nearly 40% of India’s consumer price index. Onion prices recorded inflation of 116.22% in October compared to 108.13% in September, while garlic inflation rose to 60.74% from 54.62%.

Additional sector data showed inflation in food and beverages stood at 8.51%, personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services at 10.14%, and restaurants and accommodation services at 10.06%. Geographic breakdowns indicated that rural inflation increased to 6.63% in October from 6.08% in September, while urban inflation rose to 5.41% from 4.88%.

The central bank previously projected inflation to average 5.2% for the current financial year. Broader economic conditions have been pressured by an uneven and deficient monsoon affecting key staple supplies, alongside global oil prices remaining roughly 40% higher than levels recorded prior to the US-Iran war.

Analysts anticipate that headline inflation will remain above the RBI’s 6% upper tolerance limit over the coming months. Expectations point toward the central bank raising the repo rate by another 25 basis points at its upcoming policy meeting.

Separately, India updated its retail inflation base year from 2012 to 2024 on February 12, 2026.